รายงานการศึกษา

Prime Minister Taksin’s Poverty Aid plan with the Thai Canal

The first priority of every government that has governed Thailand is to aid poverty. Is Thailand really poor? When there are many countries that are poorer than us. Since the cold war between capitalist countries leaded by the United States and socialist countries leaded by Russia has ended, if we broadly measure the economical standings of Thailand in ASEAN countries in 1977 by asking any Thai citizen from that time, we will find that they don’t feel inferior to South Korea, Malaysia or even China. In these days, those feelings are feelings of the past. As everyday goes by, it seems that Thailand is still in the illusion that our economic strength is the same.

How can we Thailand really need to fight poverty? when our agricultural produce is high, especially our rice. Thailand has 10 million tons of surplus rice for export (highest in the world) or our fruit that we have to export and rally our own citizens to buy the surplus, our seafood export is also very good and Thailand is planning to position ourselves as the world’s “Kitchen”. Our handicraft products or our cultural products are selling everywhere, even with Thai citizens. Any Economist can see that “Thailand is not poor but in deficit from foreign trade (Dollar)”

Many may ask how the Dollar is involved with our countries poverty. If we explain in simple terms, we would explain that when we buy from foreign countries whether it’s oil, aircraft, technological products, etc., we use American Dollars to buy those things. If we buy an Aircraft such as an Airbus A380 which is valued at 218 million Dollars or 9 billion baht, it would take 1 to 2 million wagons of rice from Thai farmers to be sold or traded and be exchanged in to dollars to buy 1 Airbus A380 (at the exchage rate of 1 dollar to 41 baht) Some citizens may not understand, but our politicians that govern our country need to know and understand.

If I had a chance to ask our government one question, my question would be: How does the government plan to bring in foreign capital? In the second term of the government formed by the Thai Rak Thai party, there are many studies about poverty in Thailand and the government is trying to turn assets into capital to help fund businesses for grassroot citizens. If the government succeeds, where would those funds go? What does the government want the citizens to invest or sell? The government has to carefully prevent the price cuts after many small businesses all over Thailand produce similar products. We would also have to worry about export, because if we can’t export our goods or if we don’t gain from our exports, it will hurt our economy even more. A lot of our products need material from outside of our country, especially oil, that we import almost 100% and has tripled its price in the past 2-3 years. The government’s plans in reducing poverty may produce even more poverty in the long run.

Table1. Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures

As for Thailand's source of income, in foreign currency, we receive income from three sources:

1. Agriculture and Agricultural industries: the income from Thailand's agriculture is only 9-10% of our GDP or around 500,000 Million baht while using half of our country's population.

2. Industries, Automobile, Electrical, Computer Parts, etc.: our income from this sector is only as labor in manufacturing or in assembly. The value of our industrial export seems to be high but the actual income for Thailand in this sector is only in labor which is

25-30% of the export value.

3. Tourism, Service Industries eg. Airports, Hotels, Tourist attractions: the income from this sector is around 700,000 Million baht (year 2003). If Suwannaphum Airport is open for use, it will draw in more income for Thailand.

The government's current attempts in aiding poverty can't be said that it isn't working, but there is another way to receive income for our country, which is the Thai Canal project, that has been approved by the senate on 24 June 2005.

The Thai Canal can profit or reduce foreign currency spending for Thailand by:

1. The Thai Canal can help tourism, by being one of the most beautiful man-made creations. It can draw foreign currency from tourists around the world and will create income for Thailand, and most importantly, it will be a symbol of Thailand forever.

2. The Thai Canal can help save more than 200,000 Million baht per year in sea transportation for Thailand. In the present, oil freighters transport more than 800,000 barrels of oil everyday and has to travel around Singapore before reaching the refinery in Rayong province which takes more than 10 days per 1 round trip. If the Thai Canal is completed, the same transport will only take 2-3 days. Currently, Thailand loses more than 100,000 Million

baht every year in transporting oil.

3. Thailand will be able to produce oil cheaper than Singapore because the distance of transportaion is shorter and the size of the oil freighter can be larger so the cost of the oil will be cheaper. The ships that pass through the Thai Canal will be our main customers that will by oil. Thailand will be able to sell oil in enormous volumes and be able to set our own

price for oil. The problems from oil smuggling will be gone. In the present, Singapore can sell more oil in 1 month than Thailand in 1 year. Singapore is 80 times smaller than Thailand. 1 Singaporian earns more than 10 Thais.

4. The Thai Canal will reduce the areas that are poor because the Thai Canal will pass through the jungles of the south of Thailand and will benefit several provinces in the route of the canal with the fruits of the ocean. Thais living on both sides of the canal will also receive benefits, and other than that, the Thai Canal can help prevent floods by letting the flood flow into the ocean. The flood that happened near the end of December of 2005 is the most devestating flood in 30 years. Floods that occur frequently in the 14 provinces in the south can be stopped. The 50,000 Thai fishing boats from both coasts will also receive benefits from the Thai Canal.

Fig. 1.Gen.Chaowalit Yongchaiyut and the Special Committee to study the probillity of the Thai Canal Project, Thai Senate, 27 August 2002

Recently, Prime Minister Taksin Shinawatra has invited Gen.Chaowalit Yongchaiyut to return to public service after he has resigned from politics for a while, to lead as chairman in aiding poverty in Thailand. Gen.Chaowalit Yongchaiyut used to be the chairman in the pobilities studies of the Thai Canal in Prime Minister Taksin's government, and has good understanding of the Thai Canal project. It will be very good for Thailand and the government, if Prime Minister Taksin assigns Gen.Chaowalit to proceed with the project, especially when the senete has approved the project. "Thailand will benefit from the Thai Canal project, even if we are the only country using it."

Now, i would like Prime Minister Taksin Chinawatra to answer to the general public, whether the Thai Canal project is in the government's plans or not, when it is approved by the senate. It would be good if the Prime Minister can publicly speak the plans for the project to Thai citizens around the country, so we can be assured that no politician can benefit from recycling the project over and over again. If Marshal Salhit Tanarat didn't approve Suwannaphum Airport as Thailand's new national airport, the Suwannaphum Airport in the present would only be a dream. "Thai Citizens need Thai currency, Thailand needs foreign currency"

31 December 2005

written by Assoc.Prof. Dr. Satapon Keovimol

Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology North Bangkok

Advisor to the Special Committee to study the probillity of the Thai Canal Project, Thai Senate.

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