Article by Assoc.
Prof. Dr. Satapon Keovimol
BSIE. (University of Oklahoma) MSIE.
(New Jersey Institute of Technology) Dr.Ing. (Universite De Nice) France
Faculty of
Engineering. King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology
North Bangkok
Advisor of the
Special Committee for Studying Thai-Canal Project of the Senate
Advisor of the
Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights of the Senate
Thailand’s Potential in the Investment
and in Operating
the Thai Canal Project
The Thai Canal project is a high cost investment project,
about 5-6 times the budget of the Suwanaphoom Airport,
which is about 120,000 - 150,000 Million Baht. The budget for the construction
of the Thai Canal is about 700,000 – 1,000,000
Million Baht.
Thailand has set the national annual budget for the year 2005 at 1,200,000
Million Baht. Thailand’s
GDP is about 6,000,000 Million Baht per year and increasing.
In the year 2004, the total savings in all the national banks and
the banking system is about 700,000 – 800,000 Million Baht. These savings are
left over and the banks have not been able to give loans or invest in anything,
which causes side-effects which burdens the national economy to pay the
interest continually. The value of the Baht decreases as a result and burdens
the society indirectly, buying goods at a higher price. At the present, (the
deposit interest rate at 1%) people to have 10 Million Baht in savings receive
less than 10,000 Baht a month in interests and it will be that way as long as
those savings lie still in the bank.
With this amount of money, it would be easy for the government to
loan it for the construction cost of the Thai Canal which returning loan
interest higher than keeping the money in the banks without having to issue
foreign loans to lose the interest. The government can issue bonds as in 2002,
which received over 400,000 Million Baht and used to resolve the rehabilitation
funds. The government can issue 100,000 Million Baht bonds every year to invest
in the Thai Canal that creates more jobs, like
moving money from one pocket to another. In less than 8 years, Thailand will have the Thai Canal
that will create income for the country, drawing foreign currency into the
country directly and indirectly for a long time. The government can reap the
income and taxes and return them to the public in less than 10 years. All the
benefits circulate in the country.
From the rough financial estimates that I have stated, I think that
Thailand
has the potential to invest in the Thai Canal Project without aid from foreign
funds.
Even though Thailand
can invest in the project wholly, I think that foreign cooperation is
necessary. Thailand
shouldn’t be the only investor; there are a number of countries ready to invest
in the Thai Canal Project. Thailand
isn’t the only country that will benefit from the project but every country in
the world; especially neighboring countries both rich and poor will receive
financial benefits from the Thai
Canal project. But Thailand
will have to be the major shareholder in the project.
Countries in South Asia will
benefit from the Thai Canal Project
From my opportunities in meeting high-ranking officials from
various countries, I’ve found that when they know that
Thailand
is continuing the Thai Canal Project, they want a part in the project. The main
reason is because those countries will benefit from the project also.
I believe that it is Thailand’s fortune to have the
present constitution. From the time that has past, we see that the guidelines
from the new constitution are leading the country in a better direction. From
the general public knowledge, the people’s constitution forces politicians to
develop both in thought and in practice. Any party becoming part of the
government, Prime Minister Taksin Shinawatra’s
government or any other government following will have stability in the
parliament to govern the country smoothly, importantly the constitution creates
rules that enable the people or organizations to have freedom in inspecting the
government.
The Thai Canal Project is a large and important project for Thailand.
We need a strong government, a strong parliament and continuity to finish this
project.
From the past, everyone can see that changing Ministers will create
havoc in every party in the country. If a Minister loses their title, it
creates even more havoc. The Prime Minister gets attacked both in and out of
the parliament. If we still use the old constitution, no matter how good Prime
Minister Taksin is won’t help anything. From what I
recall, no government has been governing for a whole term.
The Thai
Canal will be reality
when the government has a strong leader in the parliament and is really working
for the country. Influence or Benefits from some countries using money or
benefits taking advantage of Thailand
for a long time will finally be out of the country.
To make the feasibility of the project easier to understand we
consider
1. The money flow
structure of the Thai
Canal Project
2. The construction cost
estimate for the Thai
Canal Project
3. The Thai Canal
construction duration estimate
4. The ability of the Thai Canal
5. Thailand’s engineering ability in constructing
the Thai Canal
1. The money flow structure of the Thai Canal
Project
The construction cost structure of the Thai Canal
From the structure the total cost for the project will be not less
than 70% of the money flowing in the country and the other 30% will be foreign
currency for fuel and machinery.
The materials used in the project construction can be produced in Thailand.
Steel, cement or even dynamite can all be produced in Thailand.
The labor forces in Thailand
are also ready in every level. The labor forces that have to do construction
work in foreign countries can return to work in their homeland along with the
domestic workers. They will bring income to their families and help build our
country.
In the issue of expropriation costs, some of the people in the
canal line do not want monetary returns but want benefits in ownership of the
canal, done by distributing shares of the Thai Canal,
creating long-term benefits for their families.
Construction Cost Estimates for the Thai Canal
If the Thai Canal Project uses a total of 1,000,000 Million Baht
and takes 5 – 10 years to complete, that means that Thailand will use about 100,000
Million Baht a year.
While
the canal creates jobs and helps money to flow in the country during the
construction, when it is complete foreign ships will pass through, foreign
currency will flow into the country, 50,000 fishing
ships will save fuel by not having to refuel at other countries. The fishing
ships will be able to conduct more fishing trips without having their ships
confiscated with trespassing charges. The Thai navy can protect, defend and
investigate illegal operations in both coasts of Thailand.
2. The construction cost estimate for the Thai Canal
Project
The monetary funds needed
are estimated by using the amount of earth to dig up, which is about 4,000
Million cubic meters. If we estimate the transportation cost at 150 Baht per
cubic meter, the costs in this category will be around 600,000 Million Baht.
The 3 bridges and 2 tunnels to be constructed will be 50,000 Million Baht. The
total cost estimate for the project is around 650,000 Million Baht.
The Construction Cost Estimates for the Thai Canal
If any minerals and resources are found in the dig, will be
gathered, managed and used for the country’s funds.
Image 1 the canal type of the Thai Canal
A massive amount of earth will be used to pave up both sides of the
canal, in a 4-kilometer perimeter at both sides. The perimeters will have to be
paved 7-10 meters higher than the sea level to accommodate an industrial town,
both hi-tech industries and source industries. We still do not know if the
amount of earth dug up will be left over or not. There will have to be a
geographical and hydrographical survey first. If there is enough left over
earth, it can be used as an island to be a cargo terminal to transport goods in
the sea like in Japan or Korea which will be a huge source of income.
3. The Thai
Canal construction
duration estimate
If the canal line dig for
the Thai Canal is route 9A, passing Trang, Patalung, Nakorn Sri Tammarat and Songkla which is about 120-130 kilometers on the ground.
The part below sea level will have to be deep enough to let ships from both
coasts pass. A precise hydrographic survey must be done. The Andaman coast is
clearly deeper than the Thai coast.
As for the construction duration, if there is good management,
separating and distributing jobs into small 1-kilometer projects, each project
will be around 5,000 million bath. The Thai Canal
will be finished in 5 years.
Image 2 image of 9A canal route
4. The ability of the Thai
Canal
From the amount of ships passing through the southern part of the
country, we find that there are 520,000 ships passing every year or about
1,300-1,400 ships everyday. There are 600-700 ships passing through the Malaga Strait
everyday, these are small ships not deeper than 20 meters. The rest of the
ships are large ships that have to detour through the Sunda
and Rombok
Straits losing not less
than 4-5 days. These ships (8,000 TEU) pay more than 100 Million Baht everyday
in insurance and fuel. We can charge the canal fee at the ship’s one-day cost;
the ships will save 3-4 days from the total cost. We can also charge the canal fee
as a percent in each ships cost savings. The shipping companies can only
benefit and be safer from pirates.
In theory, the Thai
Canal has a capability to
allow 400-600 ships to pass every day. Practically, 200-300 ships everyday
would be more than enough.
Image 3 The Thai Canal daily capacity
5. Thailand’s
engineering ability in constructing the Thai Canal
In
the past 10 years, Thailand
had some large projects in Bangkok
e.g. the sky train, the subway, large overpasses. These projects all use a
higher technology than would be needed to construct the Thai Canal.
An example is the subway construction in Bangkok,
which is deeper than the Thai
Canal. The Thai Canal
would only be 40 meters deeper than the sea level if there were an earthquake
the risk of the subway dig would be much higher. The subway dig was conducted
in Bangkok, in an area with high density of
population; from the aerial survey the 9A route of the Thai Canal
has a low-density population. The construction can be done fully, all 24 hours.
The engineering problems of the construction do not exceed the
capabilities of Thai construction companies. We have the capability in both
engineering and technological aspects. The Thai Canal
project is a high budget project, but a simple technology project. The key to
the project is good management to operate following the plans, more than
engineering problems. If the Thai Canal project is a joint project with foreign
countries that have experience in large projects such as China, America, Japan,
France. The Thai Canal will be completed as planed, as a
canal of peace and happiness. An important canal that humans helped each other
to build, it would be an honor to Thai citizens. Thai children will think of
everyone that helped the Thai Canal project to be real, and made the Thai Canal
a global monument that is spoken of worldwide.
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